Grow Engine Configurator — Holiday Season

Holiday 2026 • Nov 1 – Jan 31 • Functional equivalent of run_forecast.py • V3

Grand Total —
PSP Y1 Diffuser
Growth Rates
Bear 5.0%
Base 8.0%
Bull 12.0%
Max Decay Floor
"none" = no floor. Enter negative decimal to set floor (e.g. -0.20 = −20% min decay).
Lineup Fragrances
Vanilla Peppermint Y2
Base: 8,544 • Launch 2025 • 5oz Spray · 8oz Candle · Car Freshener
Decay Rate 0.0%
Elasticity Weight 1.2×
Amazon 2-Pack Units
Palo Santo Pine Y5
Base: 1,757 • Launch 2022 • 8oz Candle · 5oz Spray* · Car Freshener*
Decay Rate 0.0%
Elasticity Weight 0.8×
Amazon 2-Pack Units
Winter Hearth Y1 NEW
New launch • 2026 • Production caps apply to all formats
5oz Spray Cap
2oz Spray Cap
Elasticity Weight 1.5×
Post-Engine Overlays
PSP Y1 Format Expansion Scales PSP 5oz + CF by scalar
Diffuser Overlay Adds VP + PSP diffuser units (= CF units per frag)
Retired Fragrances — Grand Base
Retired (contributing to grand base):
Pine Forest • Holiday Hearth • Snowscape
Active lineup H2025: 10,301 Retired H2025: 13,876 Grand Base: 24,177
Pooled Decay Curves (Reference)
Y1→Y2: median −7.0%, stdev 50.0%, n=15
Y2→Y3: median −0.7%, stdev 37.1%, n=10
Decay overrides in effect for VP & PSP. WH uses raw_estimate = sum of caps.
Validation errors — fix before export:
    Warnings (export will proceed):
      ✓ Config valid — downloading...
      Scenario: 8.0% growth
      Engine Pool
      —
      Pre-overlay grand total
      Overlay Addition
      —
      PSP Y1 + Diffuser
      Grand Total
      —
      Engine + all overlays

      Units by Fragrance

      SKU-Level Forecast — H2025 vs H2026

      8.0% Base
      FragranceFormat 2025 Units2026 Forecasted% of 2026 CapDistribution

      Engine Internals

      Grand Base24,177
      Grand Target—
      Pack Total—
      Frag Target—
      Raw VP—
      Raw PSP—
      Raw WH—
      WH Overflow—
      ⚠
      AWAITING FINAL REVIEW
      Pre-Production State — not approved for final distribution — preprod.growfragrance.ai